Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 142,207
2 Rhode Island 141,195
3 South Dakota 139,300
4 Utah 124,713
5 Tennessee 122,704
6 Arizona 119,175
7 Iowa 116,414
8 Nebraska 114,325
9 Wisconsin 114,285
10 Oklahoma 113,634
11 New Jersey 113,362
12 South Carolina 113,304
13 Arkansas 111,726
14 Delaware 108,624
15 Indiana 108,595
16 Alabama 108,159
17 Kansas 107,313
18 Illinois 106,962
19 New York 106,159
20 Idaho 105,679
21 Florida 105,345
22 Mississippi 105,225
23 Minnesota 103,866
24 Nevada 103,235
25 Montana 102,783
26 Georgia 102,080
27 Wyoming 101,290
28 Kentucky 101,048
29 Massachusetts 100,942
30 Texas 100,428
31 Louisiana 99,331
32 Missouri 98,641
33 Connecticut 96,126
34 Michigan 95,979
35 New Mexico 95,064
36 California 95,050
37 North Carolina 94,183
38 Alaska 93,396
39 Ohio 92,523
40 Pennsylvania 91,744
41 Colorado 90,950
42 West Virginia 86,867
43 Virginia 77,948
44 Maryland 74,801
45 New Hampshire 70,851
46 District of Columbia 68,205
47 Washington 54,430
48 Puerto Rico 52,598
49 Maine 47,212
50 Oregon 45,063
51 Vermont 37,489
52 Hawaii 23,626

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 350
2 Colorado 302
3 Minnesota 256
4 Maine 236
5 Pennsylvania 216
6 West Virginia 209
7 Illinois 203
8 Rhode Island 203
9 Florida 202
10 Delaware 195
11 Oregon 193
12 North Dakota 187
13 New Jersey 184
14 Indiana 175
15 Washington 174
16 North Carolina 171
17 Alaska 164
18 Connecticut 164
19 Massachusetts 152
20 New Hampshire 152
21 Kentucky 148
22 Wyoming 147
23 South Carolina 139
24 Nevada 136
25 Wisconsin 132
26 Montana 131
27 Tennessee 131
28 Utah 131
29 New York 128
30 Iowa 123
31 New Mexico 120
32 Ohio 120
33 Nebraska 115
34 Maryland 111
35 Georgia 108
36 Vermont 107
37 Kansas 105
38 Alabama 104
39 Idaho 102
40 Louisiana 102
41 Virginia 102
42 Missouri 100
43 Arizona 99
44 South Dakota 97
45 Texas 90
46 Puerto Rico 89
47 Arkansas 78
48 Hawaii 75
49 District of Columbia 70
50 Mississippi 62
51 California 57
52 Oklahoma 53

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,901
2 New York 2,676
3 Massachusetts 2,563
4 Rhode Island 2,536
5 Mississippi 2,428
6 Arizona 2,389
7 Connecticut 2,282
8 Louisiana 2,244
9 South Dakota 2,238
10 Alabama 2,236
11 Pennsylvania 2,073
12 North Dakota 2,006
13 Indiana 1,989
14 New Mexico 1,955
15 Illinois 1,935
16 Michigan 1,926
17 Arkansas 1,908
18 Iowa 1,896
19 South Carolina 1,857
20 Georgia 1,855
21 Nevada 1,784
22 Tennessee 1,780
23 Texas 1,750
24 Kansas 1,736
25 Oklahoma 1,726
26 Delaware 1,672
27 Ohio 1,662
28 Florida 1,659
29 California 1,574
30 District of Columbia 1,572
31 Missouri 1,520
32 West Virginia 1,517
33 Kentucky 1,493
34 Montana 1,489
35 Maryland 1,461
36 Wisconsin 1,309
37 Minnesota 1,296
38 Virginia 1,273
39 Nebraska 1,230
40 Wyoming 1,226
41 North Carolina 1,220
42 Idaho 1,154
43 Colorado 1,126
44 New Hampshire 964
45 Puerto Rico 737
46 Washington 736
47 Utah 693
48 Oregon 601
49 Maine 590
50 Alaska 453
51 Vermont 399
52 Hawaii 341

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 6
2 Montana 4
3 New Jersey 4
4 Pennsylvania 4
5 West Virginia 4
6 Alabama 3
7 Florida 3
8 Kansas 3
9 Oklahoma 3
10 Puerto Rico 3
11 Georgia 2
12 Illinois 2
13 Iowa 2
14 Louisiana 2
15 Minnesota 2
16 New Mexico 2
17 New York 2
18 North Carolina 2
19 Ohio 2
20 South Carolina 2
21 South Dakota 2
22 Texas 2
23 Wisconsin 2
24 Arizona 1
25 California 1
26 Colorado 1
27 Connecticut 1
28 Delaware 1
29 District of Columbia 1
30 Idaho 1
31 Indiana 1
32 Kentucky 1
33 Maryland 1
34 Massachusetts 1
35 Missouri 1
36 Nebraska 1
37 Nevada 1
38 North Dakota 1
39 Oregon 1
40 Rhode Island 1
41 Tennessee 1
42 Virginia 1
43 Washington 1
44 Alaska 0
45 Arkansas 0
46 Hawaii 0
47 Maine 0
48 Mississippi 0
49 New Hampshire 0
50 Utah 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 365,178 1 99
Crowley Colorado 360,667 2 99
Bent Colorado 273,982 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 249,830 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 245,700 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 141,920 186 94
Richland South Carolina 111,670 983 68
York South Carolina 110,467 1036 67
Orange California 85,218 2206 29
Pierce Washington 56,129 2865 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,193 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,574 1817 42
York South Carolina 1,345 2090 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,344 2092 33
Richland South Carolina 1,335 2101 33
Pierce Washington 724 2745 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons